DO NOT BELIEVE THOSE REAL ESTATE DOOMSAYERS

By Mark Ferry John A. Lamsen, 11 February 2025, 3:18 pm

 

I honestly do not believe 100% all the statements being made by the so-called real estate experts, no matter how flashy they appear or how they back up their statements with numbers that they themselves created and crunched for their satisfaction, just to make them appear credible.

 

Have you seen any big-time property developer stating that the market is overflooded by condo units? Have you seen any interview by them saying market is down - them who develops/creates products for buyers to choose from?

 

Those so-called real estate "experts", when I checked them out, have NEVER been involved in project development. All they did their whole life is SELLING. It's like 1 year experience repeated 20 times, kaya meron silang 20-year experiences. Pathetic, for my standards.

 

So please, don't take their words as Bible truths. They were never 100% true, honestly speaking.

 

I don't mind if they will HATE me for this, but the real property market can be glanced from being street-smart, something I've employed in analyzing REAL market trends. Proof? Yours truly is the first person to tell the world that the recent low demand in condo unit take up ISN'T because of the poor economy, but it's the aftermath of the pandemic period. Majority of the middle-class people in the metropolis prefer holding cash than buying units - CASH IS KING (basic principle in financial management). It's only RECENTLY that one brokerage firm interviewed on national TV aligned with me.

 

Developers normally allot only 85% to 90% of their total units to be sold out (“absorbed”) by the market, and they make sure that even if 10-15% of their inventory is left unsold, they will still have sizable profit. And because of a lot of presence of these developers, their unsold inventories flooded the market – and that is expected! Now, the market absorption of these unsold inventories will be dictated by three (3) factors: quality of finished projects, property management reputation, and bank’s interest rates.

 

I know one big-time developer whose unsold units in Katipunan Avenue remains more than 100 units even if the project has been completed almost 10 years ago. People described their units in that project as “matchboxes”. Since nothing is astonishing than the location, those unsold units remained as that – unsold.

 

Another project, along EDSA, has been described by one of their unit buyers as having unpleasant smell on their floor due to the stinking garbage chute. That’s not a good review of their building’s property management.

 

Lastly, the market’s absorption capability in these unsold inventories will largely depend on the interest rates of the banks in their housing loan products. Right now, the lending rates of most commercial banks are set at 7%, which is honestly higher than the 6% I saw way back 8 years ago, when I was a management consultant for a mid-sized upcoming developer (who successfully delivered their very first condo project). A higher interest rate is not encouraging for home buyers, as they will have to spend more on amortizations for their condo unit purchase.

 

The so-called oversupply is actually a myth presented as truth by the doomsayers, who are actually looking for leverages in negotiating properties to buy, and for some of their broker-friends to take advantage, para lang makabenta. Devilish, to be honest with you, for anyone to use this scheme, especially if the property owners decided to sell their property due to financial constraints, and nothing else. Then the bandwagon of other co-doomsayers, dahil friends nila yung mga nagsasabi nito.

 

The ill-effects of the pandemic can still be felt BUT the positive outlook on the economy will actually help vanish these ill-effects away. Sadly, some prefer to pounce on the so-called poor economy perception of our country because their trusted friends said so. I know we have instable political cloud hanging over all of us, but it doesn’t automatically translate to poor economy, unless you want China to take over us (and it’s not even guaranteed that Chinese colonization will help us become prosperous).

 

As they say, positive thinking attracts positivity. Negative thinking attracts chaos.